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Robots that recognise the emotions of people they interact with are set to replace actuaries in the offices of reinsurance companies. The London team behind the project is trying to understand how the human brain perceives faces, and then teach the actuary robots to recognise the emotions of people they interact with.
Actuaries interact perfectly with computer models but are less able to deal with human colleagues, and vice versa. By replacing the actuaries with robots that are more like humans, office life will be more bearable for other employees.
The actuary robots can smile, look surprised, and do a range of different things including talk about the football.
“It's important for these machines to recognise how to act socially - to see when people are looking happy or sad,
There are signs of possible glimmers of light at the end of the underwriting tunnel for the global reinsurance markets after centuries of soft markets, pitiful investment returns, biblical catastrophe activity, and less than zero investor interest, A. B. Waite & Sea has reported in its annual renewal outlook.
“Reinsurance bosses can put away their pills and cancel that trip to the Dignitas euthanasia clinic,” ratings agency analyst Bob Notches laughed as he launched the special report on the reinsurance industry.
To the sound of journalists putting away their notebooks, Notches said the general consensus after the June and July renewals was that pricing for U.S. Catastrophe business would soon be soaring by 1% to 1.5%.
Catastrophe losses have been estimated as high as $600 trillion for the first half of 2011 which have gnawed into last January’s capital position, Notches smiled. Added pressure is coming from the widespread panic and confusion created by cat model revisions. The new models revised property PMLs up by 4,500%.
“Companies are praying to their gods for an improvement in property cat pricing at the January 2012 renewal,” Notches grinned. “Some are even hoping this potential hardening will spread to other lines, even casualty. I mean really!”
Notches’ report said that a millennium of soft market conditions and depressed valuations means that the industry is unlikely to ever see another merger, acquisition or start-up – unless the cycle turns.
But A. B. Waite & Sea has revised its ratings for the reinsurance sector up from “terminal” to “unstable” as it believes recent catastrophe losses have created sufficient momentum for reinsurance rates to solidify to what it described as firm-ish.
“Following the worst goddam quarter for natural catastrophes since they were real bad a while back, reinsurers are warning brokers and cedants that they had better watch out because they are seriously considering not reducing their rates very much further in the near to middle term,” Notches giggled, as reporters checked to see if their watches were still working.
Capacity is ample at the moment but sentiment is in short supply, Notches said. “Reinsurers are keenly aware of the effect a major event or three could have on their balance sheets, it’s just that no-one else cares,” Notches joked.
Lloyd's company Luddite Underwriting Agencies has announced that it is to equip its underwriters with eyePads. CEO Ian Glasses said the move was intended to ensure that his company stayed up with the times.
An invisibility cloak that protects reinsurance underwriters from the unwanted attentions of brokers and journalists is being trialled at conferences this year.
The invisibility cloak worn by the underwriters of a Bermuda reinsurer is made from metamaterial. Metamaterials are materials unavailable in nature or Marks & Spencer, in which the microstructure is changed to create unusual properties such as bending of electromagnetic waves. The
The so-called conference 'cloaking' device, bends light around the reticent underwriter so that you don't see him or her, but you also don't see that the light has been bent.
It enters the material in a straight line and it also leaves the device in the same direction in came from, as if nothing had happened to it. The technology could be applied in the areas of communications, wireless energy transfer, sensors and security.
Lord Grantham, CEO and Chairman of Downton Re faces ruin after the sinking of the Titanic threatens the company, but the arrival of hedge fund CousinMatt secures the future of the aristocratic reinsurance company (having previously been saved by American money in the form of a merger with Cora PLC).
Light relief is apparent in the form of the reinsurer’s Chief Risk Officer, the Dowager Countess who asks at one point: “What on earth is a paid loss retro?” to the merriment of everyone. Chief Risk Officer Carson keeps everything running shape, with the occasional acerbic comment such as, “No Mrs Hughes, we will not offering finite risk policies while I am in charge downstairs,” and “Mrs Patmore, would you kindly refrain from underwriting US East Coast catastrophe business at unsustainable rates.”
The calm of the Downton Re is rent asunder with the collapse of the Turkish operation, and later by the arrival of brash new money in the form of Bermudan reinsurer Carlisle Re. Lady Sybil Crawley’s attempts to make the family take Solvency II seriously are ignored until the arrival of Lavinia Swire threatens the capital base of Downton Re, while the subsidiary run by Lady Edith announces merger discussions with Dublin-based Chauffeur Re…[that’s enough spurious Downton comparisons – Ed]
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