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Everyone knows what's happened in the last 12 months: what real enterprise risk professionals want to know is what is likely to happen in the coming 12 months. With that in mind, RISKbitz veteran industry commentators Bart Hogroy and Todd Gwynion [get on with it, I'm bored already. Ed] have prepared an indispensable list of the events most likely to impact up your bottom line [for god's sake. Ed]
1 Solvency II: where is it?
An ongoing shortage of acronyms causes further delays to Solvency II and while no-one is paying attention Solvency III is rushed through on a new Omnibus. "You wait years for an Omnibus and then suddenly two come along at once," one comedian will say in his otherwise excruciatingly dull presentation attended by two people in a cavernous hall in Brussels. The three pillars of a simplified Solvency III are: make sure the money is under the CFO's bed and not invested in risk free assets; make sure the glue is dry in your balsa models (see 9 below); don't write any more new business.
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6 EU bans investors from looking at ratings
In a move designed to prevent rating agency actions from precipitating a systemic collapse of everything, the European Commission makes it a crime for Europeans to look at ratings from US agencies. New legislation rushed through the European Parliament prevents financial institutions from accessing ratings actions in print or electronic format. The move creates a black market in unsafe bogus ratings opinions in Europe and eventually precipitates a full scale trade war with the US. Brussels retaliates by launching its own EU agency that will only issue A range ratings "to bolster confidence".
7 Lloyd's is hit by triple whammy of emerging risks
Lloyd's is forced to abandon its iconic Lime Street HQ after being hit by a trio of emerging risks. First, a massive solar weather flare-up causes all its new fax and telex machines to cease functioning. Later in the year a pandemic cocktail of mad cow disease and swine ‘flu sweeps through the building making the market's mad cows and swines stay at home [oh please. Ed]. Finally, climate change induced high temperatures cause the building's metal cladding to melt. "What are the odds of that happening?" said one company's CRO.
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